The effect of explicit convection on simulated malaria transmission across Africa.

Malaria transmission across sub-Saharan Africa is sensitive to rainfall and temperature. Whilst different malaria modelling techniques and climate simulations have been used to predict malaria transmission risk, most of these studies use coarse-resolution climate models. In these models convection, atmospheric vertical motion driven by instability gradients and responsible for heavy rainfall, is parameterised. Over the past decade enhanced computational capabilities have enabled the simulation of high-resolution continental-scale climates with an explicit representation of convection. In this study we use two malaria models, the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) and Vector-Borne Disease Community Model of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (VECTRI), to investigate the effect of explicitly representing convection on simulated malaria transmission. The concluded impact of explicitly representing convection on simulated malaria transmission depends on the chosen malaria model and local climatic conditions. For instance, in the East African highlands, cooler temperatures when explicitly representing convection decreases LMM-predicted malaria transmission risk by approximately 55%, but has a negligible effect in VECTRI simulations. Even though explicitly representing convection improves rainfall characteristics, concluding that explicit convection improves simulated malaria transmission depends on the chosen metric and malaria model. For example, whilst we conclude improvements of 45% and 23% in root mean squared differences of the annual-mean reproduction number and entomological inoculation rate for VECTRI and the LMM respectively, bias-correcting mean climate conditions minimises these improvements. The projected impact of anthropogenic climate change on malaria incidence is also sensitive to the chosen malaria model and representation of convection. The LMM is relatively insensitive to future changes in precipitation intensity, whilst VECTRI predicts increased risk across the Sahel due to enhanced rainfall. We postulate that VECTRI's enhanced sensitivity to precipitation changes compared to the LMM is due to the inclusion of surface hydrology. Future research should continue assessing the effect of high-resolution climate modelling in impact-based forecasting.

Factors Influencing Compliance with The Utilization of Effective Malaria Treatment and Preventive Measures in Wulu, South Sudan.

BACKGROUND: High incidence of malaria disease in South Sudan may be largely due to poor/non-compliance with effective treatment and preventive measures. This study examined factors limiting/enhancing compliance with the utilization of known and effective malaria treatment and preventive measures in Wulu, South Sudan. METHODS: A case-control study involving 396 respondents was conducted. Participants were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire to elicit information regarding socio-demographics and factors influencing compliance with using available treatment and preventive measures for malaria. RESULT: Respondents diagnosed with malaria reported lack of insecticide treated nets (51.5%) and forgetfulness (16.6%) as reasons for not using insecticide treated nets. About 26% of them lacked the knowledge of insecticide treated net's usefulness, while 57.5% of them did not consider it necessary to have door/window barriers. About 44% of all respondents forgot to take prescribed drugs at the right time while 14.5% of them did not complete drug prescriptions because they felt relief of symptoms. There were significant associations between identified factors of compliance to treatment/preventive measures and occurrence of malaria (all at p = 0.001). Having insecticide treated nets (OR: 5.78; CI: 3.46-9.00), awareness of its benefits (OR: 8.76; CI: 3.02-25.37), being taught on its use (OR: 3.35; CI: 2.17-5.18) and understanding of its use (OR: 3.80; CI: 2.01-7.20) were significantly associated with year-round utilization of insecticide treated nets. CONCLUSION: Poor access to and knowledge of malaria treatment, control and preventive measures are leading barriers to their effective utilization in Wulu.

Effects of a Twelve-Week Weight Reduction Exercise Programme on Selected Spatiotemporal Gait Parameters of Obese Individuals.

Objectives. This study was carried out to investigate the effects of twelve-week weight reduction exercises on selected spatiotemporal gait parameters of obese individuals and compare with their normal weight counterparts. Methods. Sixty participants (30 obese and 30 of normal weight) started but only 58 participants (obese = 30, normal weight = 28) completed the quasi-experimental study. Only obese group had 12 weeks of weight reduction exercise training but both groups had their walking speed (WS), cadence (CD), step length (SL), step width (SW), and stride length (SDL) measured at baseline and at the end of weeks 4, 8, and 12 of the study. Data were analysed using appropriate descriptive and inferential statistics. Results. There was significantly lower WS, SL, and SDL but higher CD and SW in obese group than the normal weight group at baseline and week 12. However, the obese group had significantly higher percentage changes in all selected spatiotemporal parameters than the normal weight group. Conclusion. The 12-week weight reduction exercise programme produced significantly higher percentage changes in all selected spatiotemporal gait parameters in the obese than normal weight individuals and is recommended for improvement of these parameters among the obese individuals with gait related problems.